I Used To Have a Corner Office in Rockefeller Plaza....

....but now this is where I conduct most of my business. Ergonomically correct chair, and all.

I Used to Have a Corner Office in Rockefeller Plaza....

...but now I find that some of my most productive meetings take place on the street, with a small bag of dog poop in my hand.

Two Additional Experts Upgrade their Pricing Forecast

The Guys at KCM get it right again.

 

Last Monday, we reported that several analysts had upgraded their projections for home price appreciation in 2013. A few days later, the Wall Street Journal revealed that two additional analysts had also upgraded their forecasts.

Zelman & Associates

“Ivy Zelman, chief executive of research firm Zelman & Associates, said Wednesday she was now expecting prices to rise by 7% this year, up from earlier estimates of 6%, 5%, and 3%…She’s also calling for a 5% gain next year because she says the supply shortages and growing demand that fueled last year’s turnaround show no signs of easing.“

Her reasons:

“The shortage of housing capacity continues to resonate. Just as deflation was a national headwind that stretched deeper into the economy than anyone would have imagined, we believe that appreciation can carry broad, positive implications for the consumer and economy beyond many expectations.”

John Burns Real Estate Consultants

“John Burns, who runs a real-estate consulting firm in Irvine, Calif., is calling for a 9% gain in home prices this year, up from a 5% forecast late last year.”

His reasons:

“Strong investor demand and low interest rates that have boosted the purchasing power of buyers.”

These two experts join a long list of housing analysts who have now called for a major rebound in housing prices in 2013.

SOURCE: KCMblog.com

Home Prices Strongest in 7 Years.

Case Shiller Indices Post Strongest Gain Since 2006

       

 

Home prices posted their strongest year-year gain in almost seven years in January according to the Case Shiller 10- and 20-city Home Price Indexes released Tuesday. Home prices rose year-year in all 20 of the cities in the Case Shiller survey.
Month-over-month, The 10- index improved 0.1 percent in January while the 20-city index was up 0.1 percent.Year-year, the 10-city index was up 7.3 percent and the 20-city index rose 8.1 percent.
Economists had forecast the month-month gain in the 20-city index would be 0.1 percent and the year-year gain would be 8.2 percent.
Prices rose in nine cities in January over December while falling in eight. Prices were unchanged in the remaining three. December data were revised showing prices rose month-month in 10 cities compared with nine in the original report.
The 10-city index rose to 158.72, its highest level since October 2010 while the 20-city index improved to 146.14, its highest level since September 2010.
The year-year price gains were led by Phoenix where prices rose 23.2 percent, consistent with a sharp drop in that city’s unemployment rate which fell to 7.3 percent from 8.3 percent in the same period.

Prices rose 17.5 percent year-year in San Francisco which saw its unemployment rate tumble to 6.8 percent from 8.1 percent. In Las Vegas where the unemployment rate fell to 10.4 percent from 13.3 percent in the last year, prices rose 15.3 percent.
Price rose 13.8 percent in Detroit despite an increase in the unemployment rate from 18.8 percent to 19.8 percent.
Three other cities saw double digit percent gains in prices in the last year: Atlanta, 13.4 percent and Los Angeles and Minneapolis, 12.1 percent each. In Atlanta, the unemployment rate fell to 11.2 percent from 11.7 percent in the last year, in Los Angeles the unemployment rate dropped to 12.1 percent from 13.3 percent from January 2012 to January 2013 and in Minneapolis, the unemployment rate increased to 5.8 percent from 5.5 percent in the last year.
Month-month price gains were led by Las Vegas, 1.6 percent, Phoenix, 1.1 percent and Atlanta, 1.0 percent. Prices rose by less than 1.0 percent in January in Charlotte, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Francisco and Tampa.
Prices fell in 0.9 percent in January in Chicago and Detroit and 0.7 percent in Washington D.C. Prices fell by less than 0.6 percent in January in Cleveland, Minneapolis, Portland, San Diego and Seattle.
Prices were unchanged in January in Boston, Dallas and Denver.
The report showed a steady improvement in prices in the West. Prices have increased in Phoenix for 16 straight months, in Los Angeles and San Francisco for 11 straight months, in Denver for 11 of the last 12 months and in Las Vegas for 10 straight months.
By contrast prices in cities in other regions have been more erratic: down for the last five months in Washington DC and Cleveland after improving for six straight months, down in Chicago for the last five months after improving for the previous five months and down in Boston for four of the last five months.
By: Mark Lieberman, Five Star Institute Economist
The 10-city index, at 158.72, is down 29.9 percent from its June 2006 high of 226.29 and the 20-city index at 146.14 is off 29.2 percent from its July 2006 peak of 206.52.
Hear Mark Lieberman Friday on P.O.T.U.S. radio, Sirius-XM 124, at 6:20 am EDT and again at 9:20 am EDT.
SOURCE: DSNEWS.COM

LUXURY, LOCATION...and a GENERATOR

If You Want a House with a Generator

Published: November 29, 2012 3:30 PM
By LISA DOLL BRUNO lisa.doll-bruno@newsday.com

  The home at 705 Carrington Rd. in Cutchogue iis listed for sale with a $1,199,000 asking price. The house, including the kitchen, was powered by a generator for five days in the aftermath of superstorm Sandy.

Five days. That's how long the 30-kilowatt Onan generator at this nine-room Victorian kept the electricity going until power was restored after superstorm Sandy. "It ran spotlessly," says the seller, noting that he and his wife even did laundry. About 30 percent of the 500-gallon tank of propane was used for the last outage. The generator, which switches on within 20 seconds of a power outage, hums quietly, notes the homeowner. It also feeds the detached, two-plus car garage, but not the attached, two-car garage. Other mechanicals include a solar hot water heater. Built in 2007 on a .63-acre parcel in Nassau Point, the house features wood floors, a fireplace, moldings and recessed lighting, as well as a chef's kitchen. There are six bedrooms, and the master suite is on the main level. There are 21/2 bathrooms. Vicky Germaise and Margaret Zarcone, Douglas Elliman Real Estate, 631-298-6146 and 917-407-4377 respectively.

Housing: The Reasons It Is Coming Back

 

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Once again, my pals at KCM get it right, and put it so succinctly. I just had to pass it on.

Monday, we told you that many experts are beginning to call a bottom in house prices. Why? Writing in the Financial Times, Roger Altman, former deputy Treasury secretary, explained why he is so bullish on housing:

“This surge will be driven by a combination of improving house prices, a lower inventory of homes for sale, rising rates of household formation and population growth, and improving access to mortgage credit.”

Altman gave his thoughts on each point:

PRICES

“The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 City Home Price index has risen 8 per cent since March. Indeed, Barclays has projected that, by 2015, nominal home prices will exceed their 2006 peak. Home affordability is also way up, as the ratio of mortgage payments to both income and rents has never been more favourable. Moreover, the relationship of home prices to household income is back to the level of 30 years ago. Rising prices and affordability, of course, lead directly to the buying and building of homes.”

HOUSING INVENTORY

“The levels of relevant supply have fallen sharply. The number of homes for sale has fallen back to its long-term average of 2m. Yes, there is a larger “shadow inventory” of homes that are in foreclosure or carry delinquent or defaulted mortgages. However, many of these are distressed, in that they have not been physically maintained. This means that the supply has become two-tiered – quality homes and distressed homes. For most buyers, only the first of these two markets is relevant and the supply there is approaching its lowest level since 1992.”

POPULATION GROWTH

“Housing demand is going to be strong, driven by demographics. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the US population will increase by 15m during the 2012-17 period, more than the increase of the past five years. The two groups of the population that are growing fastest are the over-55s and the so-called echo boomers, the grandchildren of the baby-boom generation. The first group has the highest rate of home ownership. The second has been renting disproportionately, and is primed to start buying. JPMorgan estimates that 6m new units of housing are needed by 2017 just to serve the bigger population.

HOUSEHOLD FORMATIONS

“There is the coming recovery in household formation. According to JPMorgan, this rate was steady at about 1.4m annually from 1958 up to 2007. But, it plunged below 500,000 for the three years following the financial crisis, as young people moved in together or lived with parents. Now it has doubled from that level and estimates of pent-up households are at an all-time high. Most expect formation rates to rise much further still, exceeding the 50-year average for a few years.”

IMPROVING ACCESS to MORTGAGE CREDIT

“The availability of mortgage credit is starting to improve. Underwriting standards tightened sharply following 2008 and the proportion of home sales that are financed by new mortgages is now at a 10-year low. However, household finances have improved sharply, with debt service ratios returning to pre-crisis levels. Moreover, banks also need the income from originating mortgages. Mortgage credit availability is therefore opening up, which also boosts home sales.”
It seems apparent that many aspects of the housing market are in the process of turning much more positive.

SOURCE: KCMBLOG.COM

Color Matters….if your house is Turquoise, Pink or Chartreuse

Color Matters….if your house is Turquoise, Pink or Chartreuse .

There are as many prognosticators, opinions, graphs and charts which attempt to explain why a house sells or does not sell – as there are unsold houses. I try to digest all the pertinent info that my stomach can take, and then see how it relates to our local market, because, yes….all real estate is local. One thing is for certain…if the exterior of your home is Turquoise, Pink, Chartreuse (or any odd color at all) you are going to have a tougher time unloading it than if it were a simple Nantucket-Gray-with-White-Trim. There are several colorful examples here on the North Fork – we’ve all driven by them. The For Sale signs have been out front for so long, they seem part of the landscape. I’ve had occasion to get inside most of these homes and I must say --- the interiors are more often than not, a revelation. While the curb appeal of a Magenta house is limited – I’ve had buyer-husbands refuse to even get out of the car – so often the interiors are well-appointed, stylish, dream homes. Too bad that limited-appeal exterior color is keeping buyers away.

Interior paint jobs are something a potential buyer often figures into his move-in costs: A-no-big-deal-freshening-up-job which he can even envision himself enjoying on weekends (ha!!!). Painting the exterior of a house is a whole ‘nother kettle of fish. Gotta get a pro for this. Could cost thousands. This mode of thought is also the reason the current owner/seller has not undertaken the job himself. (Even though his last 3 realtors have suggested it.) Meanwhile, time marches on. The exterior is now, not only Turquoise/Magenta/Chartreuse, it’s faded and dingy, less appealing every day, while all the Gray houses in the neighborhood have sold.

If your odd-colored home has been languishing on the market, I have a piece of advice for you: “If 3 people tell you you’re drunk, lie down.” Paint the house Gray, White, Beige and be done with it. Take some fresh photos, market it like a new home and SELL THE THING!!!! 

 

I would also bet you can find a painter willing to play Let’s Make a Deal, and take half upfront and half when that “SOLD” sign goes up in front of your freshly painted Nantucket-Gray-with-White-Trim house.